Earlier this week, many of us were able to witness Justin Verlander come within five outs of throwing the third no-hitter of his career, and the second one this season. Orlando Cabrera, however, laced a 0-1 fastball up the middle and made sure Verlander would not make the Indians his next no-hit victim. The day following Verlander's dominating performance, the baseball world was buzzing about how great the 28-year old from Virginia is. Some experts believed there was nobody better than, while others still had their doubts when it came to comparing him to others that are regarded as baseball's best pitcher.
I don't want to sit and compare pitchers to determine, in my opinion, who the top pitcher in the league is. There are way too many variables to take into account and the difference between pitching in the AL and NL is so vast that it's almost unfair to compare pitchers in the separate leagues. Instead, I want to create what would be the best five-man pitching rotation in baseball today. Of course, there is room to debate, so I'd love to hear feedback on who you would put into your rotation. However, in the meantime, here is my fantasy rotation. Stats listed are their career numbers.
1. Roy Halladay (178-89, 3.29 ERA, 1.17 WHIP): Although he is 34 years old, Halladay has actually improved statistically every year since 2007. While he didn't become a strikeout pitcher until 2008, Halladay has always been the best when it comes to efficiency. In 335 career starts, he has 62 complete games. In 2010, Halladay had nine complete games and only averaged 108.1 pitches per start. At the top of any rotation, consistency and efficiency are key and Halladay exemplifies that. There is nobody else in the league who compares to him in those regards and that is why in my rotation, he's the ace.
2. Justin Verlander (92-55, 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP): While consistency is the key to Halladay's success, the same is not true for Verlander. At least, that was the case until the 2011 season. In the first 165 starts of his career, Verlander had only 10 complete games. In only 16 starts this season, he already has four complete games and one in each of his last two starts. The key to Verlander's success has always been his ability to overpower hitters. However, this season he has changed his approach, dramatically improved his changeup, and is now mixing his ability to be overpowering along with consistency and the results have been unbelievable. With opponents hitting only .188 against Verlander and his WHIP at a staggering 0.85, this may be the season he sets himself apart from the rest of the pitchers in baseball.
3. Cole Hamels (69-48, 3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP): Any strong rotation needs a left-handed pitcher. There is no better left-handed pitcher in baseball than Cole Hamels, and that is why he would be the third pitcher in my rotation. Hamels has had an outstanding season thus far in 2011, but he has always been a top pitcher, even if it has been while under the radar. The number of wins he has posted is not overwhelming, but the WHIP Hamels has posted throughout his career (1.15) ranks near the top since his debut in 2006. In the past three seasons, Hamels groundball-to-flyball ratio along with opponent's batting average have dramatically improved. If the maturation continues in the coming years, Hamels may not only be considered the top left-handed pitcher in baseball, but the best period.
4. Jair Jurrjens (46-30, 3.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP): As a Detroit Tiger fan, it is almost painful to see the success that Jurrjens has enjoyed since being traded to Atlanta after the 2007 season. While injuries have been somewhat of an issue in the past, Jurrjens is still very young (25 years old) and this season is proving he may have the brightest future of all the pitchers in this rotation. While he is not overpowering, he does a great job of keeping hitters off-balance and his control is exceptional. Although his fastball can top out in the mid-to-high 90s, the most effective pitch in his repertoire is his changeup. The key for Jurrjens is developing a strong third pitch. The slurve has been a work-in-progress for a few years now, but maybe this is the season that it fully develops to put Jurrjens on the next level.
5. Josh Johnson (48-23, 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP): The hardest choice in determining this rotation was where to place Johnson. While he has the ability to easily be in one of the top two spots, the injury-prone track his career has taken has really taken its toll. After 14 starts in 2008, Johnson underwent reconstructive elbow surgery. When he returned in 2009, Johnson went 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA and looked like he was close to reaching full potential. However, after another exceptional year in 2010, he was shut down due to back problems in September. Johnson looked to be well on his way this season to a potential Cy-Young before going on the 60-day DL due to a shoulder injury. When Johnson returns, he has an overpowering fastball and exceptional command with his secondary pitches. If he can stay healthy, he will flourish. If not, he will be added to the list of players you wonder, "what if?"
Those are the five pitchers that I would put in my rotation if given a team and unlimited checkbook. Who would you have in your rotation?
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If I had to put together a rotation, I would have to put Halladay at the top as well. He has been the model of consistency and overall worth to a team. As you pointed out, not only is he dominant, but he is an inning-eater. For the better part of the past decade, he has been a workhorse - consitently racking up over 200 innings. When he pitched the 'perfecto' last year, it seemed as if the general mindset was, "It's about time." Halladay's dominance has been unparalleled, and his low-key demeanor and unwaivering work-ethic lead me to believe that it will continue.
ReplyDeleteWith my ace determined, I would also have to run Verlander out to the hill in game two. While I feel like I might be biased - not by being a Tigers fan, but because his last five starts have been off the charts - I do think that he deserves the nod at this point in time. Statistically, pitchers peak between the ages of 27 and 32, and Verlander appears to be fitting right into this mold. Roger Clemens peaked at 38, but uhhhh...
Verlander has improved his changeup immensely, has better control of his curveball, and is finally starting to locate his fastball consistently - even when he touches the upper 90's. Where he used to appear flustered in years past (falling behind in the count/getting into jams), his walk rate is down, and he appears to actually be "pitching" the baseball - not just throwing.
Josh Johnson would have been third on my list, but seeing as his arm is about ready to fall off, I'll leave him off.
Instead, King Felix gets the nod for the pivotal game three start. Last season, he won the AL Cy Young with the lowest amount of wins ever, by a long shot. He has been spectacular over his career with the completely inept Mariners lineup of the past four seasons. Hernandez' career record of 78-59 is nothing short of incredible considering the teams he has played on over the past few seasons. Had he played on a contender, to imagine his win total approaching 100 at this point is not outlandish, and at the age of 25, the thought is scary. Hernandez possesses a dangerous repertoire of pitches, and is, in my mind, only a season or two away from being a no-hit threat on a consistent basis (much the way Verlander and Halladay are now).
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ReplyDeleteIn the fourth slot, I agree that any great rotation needs a lefty, but I would have to go with the big guy in NY - CC Sabathia. His dominance has somehow managed to go under the radar while in New York (I think that's an oxy moron). Unlike many other mega-contract players, CC has actually lived up to his billing; he has won a lot of ballgames, and pitched a ton of innings. He is a perrenial Cy Young candidate (perhaps aided by his win total from playing for the Yanks, but still), and has come through with a ton of innings in the Bronx, where consistency and health have been at a premium in recent years. And let's not forget the CC Tour of the NL in 2008 when he nearly won the Cy Young, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA for the Brewers. CC may not be the best candidate on this list to throw a no-hitter, but when his team needs a win, CC comes through.
And though I believe Jurrjens is having a fantastic season and is definitely a great selection, I'll mix it up a little bit from your list and go with someone else. As he has shown in years past (and in his last few starts), he can be somewhat inconsistent. Where the above pitchers are almost always turning in seven plus innings, surrending 2 runs or fewer, Jurrjens has a tendency to blow up every few starts. Again, he may be coming into his prime now, and perhaps those starts are more a thing of the past, but for the sake of choosing someone other than you, I'll go with another southpaw in the form of...
Cliff Lee. Overshadowed this year by the reemergence of Hamels, Lee has been a Halladay-esque pitcher over the past four seasons. Complete games, tons of innings, a very low ERA, and big game wins have become customary for Lee. While he started the season on a rough note, he has quietly lowered his ERA to 3.12, and has given up one run over his past 25 IP. Prior to this year, Lee was one of the most sought after free agents because of the value that he brought to a team. He was the left-handed version of Halladay. Efficiency and consistency are both synonymous with Lee's performance over the past four years. When healthy, Lee can carry a team.
That's all I have for now... Because it is such a debatable topic, I'll list my honorable mention as:
Josh Beckett
Josh Johnson
Tim Lincecum
Cole Camels
Jon Lester
Clayton Kershaw
Dan, love the insight you gave. It's impossible to argue against any of your picks. Felix Hernandez was the toughest one for me to leave off the list. He was probably the one guy and it came down to him or Jurrjens. As for Beckett, Lincecum, Lester and Kershaw, they were all also possibilities. After what we saw Kershaw do last night to the Tigers hitters, it made me feel stupid leaving him off the list. However, I went with who I went with. Luckily, there is no right or wrong answer!
ReplyDeleteAgain though, thanks for the feedback and hope you're doing well. Hopefully see you soon and feel free to comment anytime!